Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.34 – 89.11

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

52 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 155 ±11.7

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -2.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 15.46Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.21Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±10.4

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 16.54Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 24.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 48.48Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1811, 41, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 41, 430

Auto

7.4 33%

Teleop

8.2 36%

Endgame

7.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 9015, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 9015, 193

Auto

6.7 8%

Teleop

55.5 64%

Endgame

23.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score89.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.8
Score range: 3–108
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

155Season APEX328.2

7.4Auto6.7

8.2Teleop55.5

7.1Endgame23.9

10Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	25
teleop	28	38
endgame	16	8
foul	0	0
total	52	71

Result

Final score

52 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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