Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.04 – 66.38

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.2 ±12.7

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 8.63Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 48.78Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 14.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 221.4 ±11

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 44.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -5.67Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 27.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8771, 5992, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

72 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 5992, 6945

Auto

29.1 41%

Teleop

25.9 36%

Endgame

16.6 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 1672, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 1672, 222

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

45.5 66%

Endgame

12.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72pts

Blue projected score66.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.7
Score range: 47–91
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 91 vs event baseline 108.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.2Season APEX221.4

29.1Auto11.3

25.9Teleop45.5

16.6Endgame12.4

20Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	3	11
teleop	6	27
endgame	8	36
foul	0	0
total	17	74

Result

Final score

17 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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