Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.26 – 74.52

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587.2 ±9.9

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 136.65Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 64Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 10.61Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±10.5

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX -2.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 19.8Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 57.01Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 3637, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8513, 3637, 4361

Auto

49.7 24%

Teleop

112.8 55%

Endgame

43.6 21%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 9116, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 9116, 11

Auto

-3.7 0%

Teleop

46.7 64%

Endgame

30.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.3pts

Blue projected score74.5pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.7
Score range: 56–230
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 106.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587.2Season APEX401.9

49.7Auto-3.7

112.8Teleop46.7

43.6Endgame30

19Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	77	57
endgame	21	38
foul	5	5
total	121	114

Result

Final score

121 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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