Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.71 – 49.22

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

294 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.6 ±11.1

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 29.68Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 165.73Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 8.3Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.5 ±12.8

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 7.8Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 5.68Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 35.74Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3142, 316, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 316, 6945

Auto

27.5 14%

Teleop

122.4 60%

Endgame

53.0 26%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 430, 8771, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 8771, 9015

Auto

12.0 25%

Teleop

25.0 52%

Endgame

11.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.7pts

Blue projected score49.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.5
Score range: 30–223
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 327 vs event baseline 104.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.6Season APEX129.5

27.5Auto12

122.4Teleop25

53Endgame11.3

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	12
teleop	163	10
endgame	68	6
foul	15	5
total	294	33

Result

Final score

294 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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