Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86 – 136.08

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.1 ±11.2

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 66.08Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX -6.34Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 26.26Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.8 ±11.1

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 6.98Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 123.61Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 5.49Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11, 752, 4285

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 752, 4285

Auto

12.2 15%

Teleop

49.7 61%

Endgame

19.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6945, 5895, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6945, 5895, 4361

Auto

33.9 26%

Teleop

73.1 56%

Endgame

24.4 19%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.1
Score range: 64–158
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.1Season APEX333.8

12.2Auto33.9

49.7Teleop73.1

19.8Endgame24.4

40Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	40
teleop	70	77
endgame	48	41
foul	0	0
total	125	158

Result

Final score

125 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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