Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.36 – 84

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.3 ±11.2

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 0.79Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 19.85Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 165.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.5 ±11.7

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 19.46Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 9.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 54.77Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 752, 223, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 752, 223, 8513

Auto

39.8 22%

Teleop

121.8 66%

Endgame

23.2 13%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 555, 8707, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 555, 8707, 8706

Auto

7.3 8%

Teleop

52.4 59%

Endgame

29.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.4pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.4
Score range: 65–205
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.3Season APEX308.5

39.8Auto7.3

121.8Teleop52.4

23.2Endgame29.2

3Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	4
teleop	21	9
endgame	9	6
foul	15	5
total	66	24

Result

Final score

66 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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