Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.21 – 145.08

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.5 ±11

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 7Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 39.08Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 36.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.1 ±9.9

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 34.52Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 83.08Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 27.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10995, 193, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 193, 41

Auto

20.9 27%

Teleop

42.5 56%

Endgame

12.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 11, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 11, 4361

Auto

11.7 8%

Teleop

71.4 50%

Endgame

60.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.2pts

Blue projected score145.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.9
Score range: 63–164
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.5Season APEX528.1

20.9Auto11.7

42.5Teleop71.4

12.8Endgame60.6

116Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	4
teleop	38	22
endgame	13	20
foul	0	0
total	73	46

Result

Final score

73 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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