Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

32.25 – 5.06

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 6

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.8 ±11.7

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 20.57Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 23.08Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX -11.4Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 88 ±13.3

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 11.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 2.12Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX -8.48Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 222, 223, 8771

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 222, 223, 8771

Auto

21.4 64%

Teleop

22.4 67%

Endgame

-10.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6945, 752, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6945, 752, 430

Auto

8.2 100%

Teleop

-10.0 0%

Endgame

7.6 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.3pts

Blue projected score5.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: -15–52
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 112.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.8Season APEX88

21.4Auto8.2

22.4Teleop-10

-10.3Endgame7.6

18Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	4
teleop	35	2
endgame	7	0
foul	0	0
total	51	6

Result

Final score

51 – 6

Prediction correct · off by 9.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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