Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.76 – 148.74

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±11

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -1.1Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 27.32Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 15.54Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.2 ±10.5

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 87.05Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 38.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 22.88Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 9116, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 9116, 555

Auto

-14.1 0%

Teleop

34.6 80%

Endgame

22.7 53%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 193, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 193, 3142

Auto

0.1 0%

Teleop

97.3 66%

Endgame

50.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.73 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.8pts

Blue projected score148.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107
Score range: 22–169
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.9Season APEX453.2

-14.1Auto0.1

34.6Teleop97.3

22.7Endgame50.3

40Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	2	17
teleop	13	78
endgame	15	53
foul	0	0
total	30	148

Result

Final score

30 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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