Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.72 – 44.08

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.9 ±10.5

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 15.44Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 24.8Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 65.48Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.5 ±9.8

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 25.32Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 28.46Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -9.7Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 219, 4285, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 219, 4285, 3637

Auto

25.1 24%

Teleop

42.6 41%

Endgame

36.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 41, 1676, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 41, 1676, 1279

Auto

13.2 32%

Teleop

17.6 43%

Endgame

10.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score44.1pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 25–125
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 106.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.9Season APEX353.5

25.1Auto13.2

42.6Teleop17.6

36.9Endgame10.6

108Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	3
teleop	121	81
endgame	11	34
foul	15	5
total	170	123

Result

Final score

170 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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