Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

167.27 – 124.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±11.2

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 10.36Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 151.32Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 5.59Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.7 ±11

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 38.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 52.43Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 33.58Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8707, 316, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8707, 316, 1811

Auto

20.1 12%

Teleop

94.8 57%

Endgame

51.1 31%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4361, 8706, 8117

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4361, 8706, 8117

Auto

14.2 11%

Teleop

67.9 55%

Endgame

42.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score167.3pts

Blue projected score124.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.9
Score range: 105–186
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 104.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.2Season APEX274.7

20.1Auto14.2

94.8Teleop67.9

51.1Endgame42

13Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	8
teleop	120	65
endgame	48	26
foul	0	0
total	190	99

Result

Final score

190 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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