Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.07 – 27.35

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 98.2 ±12.1

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 2.55Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 23.58Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 33.94Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±10.4

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 15.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 8.77Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 2.8Rank 21Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10995, 6945, 9116

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 6945, 9116

Auto

9.1 16%

Teleop

38.3 67%

Endgame

9.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 193, 223, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 223, 555

Auto

-2.9 0%

Teleop

23.4 77%

Endgame

9.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.1pts

Blue projected score27.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 8–79
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

98.2Season APEX368

9.1Auto-2.9

38.3Teleop23.4

9.5Endgame9.9

84Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	10
teleop	12	69
endgame	3	37
foul	0	0
total	25	116

Result

Final score

25 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 61.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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