Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.46 – 94.22

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

51 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±10.4

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 33.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 5.24Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 24.21Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±10.5

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 64.46Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 24.91Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 4.85Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 1672, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 1672, 9015

Auto

19.2 35%

Teleop

22.4 40%

Endgame

13.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 1279, 6016

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 1279, 6016

Auto

19.1 22%

Teleop

44.0 50%

Endgame

25.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.5pts

Blue projected score94.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.8
Score range: 40–116
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 90 vs event baseline 120.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.2Season APEX325.1

19.2Auto19.1

22.4Teleop44

13.9Endgame25

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	18
teleop	31	11
endgame	7	10
foul	0	0
total	51	39

Result

Final score

51 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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