Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

120 – 166.02

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 107.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170 ±12.2

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 30.51Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 59.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 30.13Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 728.5 ±9.3

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 114.8Rank 2Record 11-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 11.35Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 39.87Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 430, 3142, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

120 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 3142, 223

Auto

7.6 6%

Teleop

84.9 71%

Endgame

27.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 316, 8706, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

166 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 316, 8706, 3637

Auto

26.9 17%

Teleop

91.1 56%

Endgame

44.9 28%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120pts

Blue projected score166pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46
Score range: 101–185
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 103.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170Season APEX728.5

7.6Auto26.9

84.9Teleop91.1

27.7Endgame44.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	69
teleop	10	133
endgame	6	77
foul	0	5
total	23	284

Result

Final score

23 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 107.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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