Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.77 – 50.06

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

111 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.4 ±9.8

4285Camo-Bots

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 37.27Rank 13Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 1.65Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 57.85Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.1 ±11.2

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX -23Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 100.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX -27.82Rank 18Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4285, 1279, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4285, 1279, 11

Auto

10.9 11%

Teleop

53.4 56%

Endgame

30.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8771, 8513, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 8513, 1672

Auto

17.4 34%

Teleop

38.9 75%

Endgame

-4.7 0%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.8pts

Blue projected score50.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 31–116
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 103.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.4Season APEX418.1

10.9Auto17.4

53.4Teleop38.9

30.5Endgame-4.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	4	66
teleop	66	65
endgame	41	1
foul	0	5
total	111	137

Result

Final score

111 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 50.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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