Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.03 – 116.12

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.5 ±10.5

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 16.2Rank 4Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -4.77Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 49.6Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±11.7

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 50.2Rank 3Record 9-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 49.6Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 16.32Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3637, 8117, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3637, 8117, 3142

Auto

0.6 1%

Teleop

42.5 70%

Endgame

17.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5895, 9116, 752

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5895, 9116, 752

Auto

1.5 1%

Teleop

73.0 63%

Endgame

41.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61pts

Blue projected score116.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.1
Score range: 43–134
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 99.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.5Season APEX328.7

0.6Auto1.5

42.5Teleop73

17.5Endgame41.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	80	109
endgame	35	16
foul	0	0
total	139	147

Result

Final score

139 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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