Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.97 – 55.12

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.1 ±10.5

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 31.66Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 48.64Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 45.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±12.2

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 16.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 13.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.77Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5992, 1676, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

126 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 1676, 193

Auto

18.8 15%

Teleop

69.9 54%

Endgame

40.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 430, 10995, 8117

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 10995, 8117

Auto

17.1 31%

Teleop

19.2 35%

Endgame

19.2 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.9
Score range: 33–148
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 96 vs event baseline 120.2.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.1Season APEX141.9

18.8Auto17.1

69.9Teleop19.2

40.1Endgame19.2

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	9
teleop	46	5
endgame	30	1
foul	0	0
total	81	15

Result

Final score

81 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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