Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.62 – 89.82

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

171 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 40.87Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 6.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 86.81Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±10.5

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 33.77Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 22.21Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 33.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5401, 2554, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 2554, 7587

Auto

18.2 14%

Teleop

75.2 58%

Endgame

35.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1807, 2722, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1807, 2722, 5789

Auto

19.6 22%

Teleop

38.4 43%

Endgame

31.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.6pts

Blue projected score89.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.8
Score range: 70–155
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 320 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296.7Season APEX323.3

18.2Auto19.6

75.2Teleop38.4

35.2Endgame31

20Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	29
teleop	81	88
endgame	34	32
foul	0	0
total	171	149

Result

Final score

171 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 pts

Match videos

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