Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.51 – 67.58

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

41 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.3 ±12.7

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 14.82Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 14.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 26.35Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±11.6

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 22.17Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 22.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 23.31Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2720, 8714, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 8714, 1257

Auto

11.7 22%

Teleop

27.7 52%

Endgame

13.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4342, 365, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 365, 10400

Auto

12.4 18%

Teleop

34.7 51%

Endgame

20.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.5pts

Blue projected score67.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.1
Score range: 36–88
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.3Season APEX194.4

11.7Auto12.4

27.7Teleop34.7

13.9Endgame20.8

20Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	16
teleop	17	5
endgame	3	18
foul	0	0
total	41	39

Result

Final score

41 – 39

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 pts

Match videos

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