Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
149.5 – 86.99
69%31%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
153 – 45
Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.2 ±9.9
Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 62.84Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 79.2Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86Event APEX 7.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 32.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 21.87Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1640, 1391, 834
73
/ 100 compatProjected
149.5 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 1640, 1391, 834
Auto
32.0 21%
Teleop
94.3 63%
Endgame
24.2 16%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1807, 2722, 5789
50
/ 100 compatProjected
87 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 1807, 2722, 5789
Auto
16.7 19%
Teleop
35.5 41%
Endgame
33.7 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 0.98
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score149.5pts
Blue projected score87pts
Red win probability69%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 62.5
- Score range
- 67–170
- Upset likelihood
- 31%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
609.2Season APEX323.3
32Auto16.7
94.3Teleop35.5
24.2Endgame33.7
0Consistency6
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 29 |
| teleop | 97 | 16 |
| endgame | 3 | 0 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 153 | 45 |
Result
Final score
153 – 45
Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts
Match videos
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