Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.06 – 118.85

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±11.6

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 24.4Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 24.3Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 24.36Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 35.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 2.56Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 81.14Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 365, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 365, 10400

Auto

13.0 18%

Teleop

38.9 53%

Endgame

21.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 2554, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 2554, 7587

Auto

16.4 15%

Teleop

60.8 55%

Endgame

32.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73.1pts

Blue projected score118.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.8
Score range: 53–139
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 108.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.4Season APEX296.7

13Auto16.4

38.9Teleop60.8

21.2Endgame32.4

28Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	14	127
endgame	13	42
foul	0	0
total	39	196

Result

Final score

39 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 pts

Match videos

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