Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.8 – 138.32

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 72.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.2 ±9.9

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 13.34Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 84.55Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 68.91Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±10.4

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 42.06Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 7.95Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 88.31Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 834, 1391, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 834, 1391, 1640

Auto

33.2 20%

Teleop

109.8 67%

Endgame

21.0 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5401, 2554, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 2554, 7587

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

75.2 57%

Endgame

34.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score138.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 118–187
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.2Season APEX296.7

33.2Auto23.3

109.8Teleop75.2

21Endgame34.5

1Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	38
teleop	16	50
endgame	7	18
foul	0	0
total	54	106

Result

Final score

54 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 72.6 pts

Match videos

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