Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

158.14 – 123.86

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

140 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.6 ±12.4

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 23.15Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 23.03Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 111.96Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.1 ±11

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 27.17Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 78.27Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 18.42Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1647, 8130, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1647, 8130, 9094

Auto

18.9 12%

Teleop

92.5 58%

Endgame

48.3 30%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1257, 7587, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1257, 7587, 10157

Auto

21.3 17%

Teleop

68.6 56%

Endgame

31.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score158.1pts

Blue projected score123.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.3
Score range: 104–178
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 285 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.6Season APEX250.1

18.9Auto21.3

92.5Teleop68.6

48.3Endgame31.9

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	24
teleop	65	67
endgame	31	54
foul	5	0
total	140	145

Result

Final score

140 – 145

Prediction missed · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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