Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.12 – 54.23

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345 ±10

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 8.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 20.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 176.48Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.5 ±12.2

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 30.54Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 26.72Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX -3.03Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2554, 2720, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 2720, 190

Auto

42.4 21%

Teleop

111.4 55%

Endgame

48.4 24%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5789, 4342, 4637

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 4342, 4637

Auto

12.8 23%

Teleop

24.6 43%

Endgame

19.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.1pts

Blue projected score54.2pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.9
Score range: 34–225
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345Season APEX119.5

42.4Auto12.8

111.4Teleop24.6

48.4Endgame19.3

26Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	13
teleop	41	16
endgame	54	22
foul	30	5
total	139	56

Result

Final score

139 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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