Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

42.89 – 33.76

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 7.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.4 ±11.6

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 19.18Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 13.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 10.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.1 ±11

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 3.21Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 23.48Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 7.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1712, 2720, 5732

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1712, 2720, 5732

Auto

15.6 41%

Teleop

13.0 34%

Endgame

9.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7414, 10157, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 10157, 2554

Auto

13.2 42%

Teleop

8.8 28%

Endgame

9.7 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.9pts

Blue projected score33.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 13–64
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 85 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.4Season APEX177.1

15.6Auto13.2

13Teleop8.8

9.6Endgame9.7

12Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	7
teleop	15	17
endgame	10	11
foul	0	10
total	40	45

Result

Final score

40 – 45

Prediction missed · off by 7.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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