Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.01 – 84.34

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.9 ±9.4

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 163.46Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 67.07Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 12.48Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.9 ±10.5

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 6.66Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 58.98Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 18.7Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 7587, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

243 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 7587, 365

Auto

46.3 19%

Teleop

127.8 53%

Endgame

66.7 28%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2554, 1640, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2554, 1640, 11104

Auto

21.7 26%

Teleop

46.2 56%

Endgame

14.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score243pts

Blue projected score84.3pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.7
Score range: 64–263
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 453 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.9Season APEX375.9

46.3Auto21.7

127.8Teleop46.2

66.7Endgame14

29Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	41
teleop	221	15
endgame	86	22
foul	10	10
total	365	88

Result

Final score

365 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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