Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.05 – 29.37

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.1 ±11.2

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 22.35Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 40.81Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 30.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.1 ±11.6

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 10.65Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 11.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 7.51Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8714, 5401, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8714, 5401, 1807

Auto

14.9 17%

Teleop

51.9 60%

Endgame

20.4 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2720, 365, 834

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 365, 834

Auto

8.0 28%

Teleop

10.7 37%

Endgame

9.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.7
Score range: 9–114
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.1Season APEX240.1

14.9Auto8

51.9Teleop10.7

20.4Endgame9.9

7Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	39	37
endgame	24	16
foul	10	0
total	86	63

Result

Final score

86 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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