Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.18 – 221.64

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151 ±12.2

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 15.58Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 1.54Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 19.06Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 417.5 ±10.8

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 21.37Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 161.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 38.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1647, 2554, 2722

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1647, 2554, 2722

Auto

9.8 26%

Teleop

9.4 25%

Endgame

18.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8130, 190, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8130, 190, 5401

Auto

42.6 20%

Teleop

119.1 55%

Endgame

53.8 25%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.47 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.2pts

Blue projected score221.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.5
Score range: 16–242
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 337 vs event baseline 108.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151Season APEX417.5

9.8Auto42.6

9.4Teleop119.1

18.9Endgame53.8

15Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	63
teleop	29	142
endgame	35	42
foul	10	0
total	90	247

Result

Final score

90 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 39.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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