Qualification · Qualification 5
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
81.96 – 64.7
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
72 – 86
Prediction missed · off by 15.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 292 ±11
Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 20.66Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 20.22Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 41.08Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.7 ±12.2
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 19.38Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 21.31Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 24.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 365, 4342, 5401
52
/ 100 compatProjected
82 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 365, 4342, 5401
Auto
16.9 22%
Teleop
39.3 50%
Endgame
21.7 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8130, 11104, 1923
39
/ 100 compatProjected
64.7 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 8130, 11104, 1923
Auto
16.9 30%
Teleop
35.2 62%
Endgame
4.7 8%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score82pts
Blue projected score64.7pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 17.3
- Score range
- 44–103
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
292Season APEX185.7
16.9Auto16.9
39.3Teleop35.2
21.7Endgame4.7
20Consistency21
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 8 | 4 |
| teleop | 35 | 49 |
| endgame | 29 | 18 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 72 | 86 |
Result
Final score
72 – 86
Prediction missed · off by 15.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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