Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.01 – 48.65

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 12

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.4 ±12.8

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX -0.36Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 16.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 68.67Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.2 ±11

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 27.42Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 13.18Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 8.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4637, 4652, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4637, 4652, 7587

Auto

9.4 10%

Teleop

45.5 50%

Endgame

36.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10157, 834, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 834, 9416

Auto

15.7 34%

Teleop

25.1 54%

Endgame

5.7 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.4
Score range: 29–105
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 70 vs event baseline 111.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.4Season APEX235.2

9.4Auto15.7

45.5Teleop25.1

36.5Endgame5.7

21Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	8
teleop	24	3
endgame	6	1
foul	5	0
total	58	12

Result

Final score

58 – 12

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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