Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.53 – 156.15

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.4 ±10.5

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 29.89Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 31.77Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 16.87Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±9.8

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 115.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 9.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 30.64Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1807, 1257, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1807, 1257, 365

Auto

11.6 16%

Teleop

30.9 43%

Endgame

29.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1218, 2554, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1218, 2554, 5789

Auto

21.5 14%

Teleop

95.4 60%

Endgame

41.4 26%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.93 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.5pts

Blue projected score156.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.6
Score range: 59–176
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 110.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.4Season APEX355.1

11.6Auto21.5

30.9Teleop95.4

29.5Endgame41.4

48Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	21
teleop	32	45
endgame	8	12
foul	0	0
total	51	78

Result

Final score

51 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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