Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38 – 182.8

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.2 ±12.1

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 15.2Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 22.32Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 0.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±10

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 13.45Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 152.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 16.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2720, 2722, 7414

/ 100 compat

Projected

38 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 2722, 7414

Auto

8.1 23%

Teleop

11.3 32%

Endgame

15.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11104, 190, 1712

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 190, 1712

Auto

48.7 26%

Teleop

97.4 53%

Endgame

39.4 21%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38pts

Blue projected score182.8pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.8
Score range: 18–203
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 109.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.2Season APEX391.7

8.1Auto48.7

11.3Teleop97.4

15.9Endgame39.4

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	58
teleop	8	151
endgame	13	50
foul	0	20
total	35	279

Result

Final score

35 – 279

Prediction correct · off by 49.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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