Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.1 – 91.33

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.3 ±10.4

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 6.01Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 28.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 18.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±11.1

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 20.79Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 66.96Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 3.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 5789, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9416, 5789, 365

Auto

9.5 19%

Teleop

25.9 52%

Endgame

14.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4342, 1391, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 1391, 2720

Auto

26.6 28%

Teleop

54.8 57%

Endgame

15.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score53.1pts

Blue projected score91.3pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.2
Score range: 34–110
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 107.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.3Season APEX330.3

9.5Auto26.6

25.9Teleop54.8

14.5Endgame15

27Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	37
teleop	49	126
endgame	0	36
foul	0	0
total	71	199

Result

Final score

71 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 62.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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