Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.1 – 190.32

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.9 ±11

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -1.44Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 30.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 32.49Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.6 ±10.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 150.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 19.37Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 20.35Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7414, 5401, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 5401, 1923

Auto

12.6 24%

Teleop

43.5 84%

Endgame

-4.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 8714, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 8714, 10157

Auto

37.2 20%

Teleop

94.1 50%

Endgame

58.5 31%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.1pts

Blue projected score190.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.2
Score range: 42–209
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.9Season APEX375.6

12.6Auto37.2

43.5Teleop94.1

-4.1Endgame58.5

34Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	62
teleop	29	122
endgame	26	44
foul	30	0
total	97	228

Result

Final score

97 – 228

Prediction correct · off by 36.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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