Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.9 – 65.33

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.8 ±10.2

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 80.19Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX 5.34Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 159.37Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±11.1

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 8.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 36.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 20.54Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 8704, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1391, 8704, 190

Auto

56.7 24%

Teleop

141.0 59%

Endgame

40.9 17%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 834, 1807, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.3 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 834, 1807, 10400

Auto

10.2 16%

Teleop

35.9 55%

Endgame

19.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.29 · Blue 0.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.9pts

Blue projected score65.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 179.6
Score range: 44–266
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.8Season APEX318.7

56.7Auto10.2

141Teleop35.9

40.9Endgame19

0Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	11
teleop	134	43
endgame	25	17
foul	0	5
total	205	76

Result

Final score

205 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 25.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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