Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.19 – 64.77

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.1 ±11.2

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 6.08Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 23.41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 56.7Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 293.8 ±11.7

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 17.46Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 20.09Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 27.22Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4637, 1712, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4637, 1712, 1640

Auto

22.5 25%

Teleop

47.1 52%

Endgame

21.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2722, 8130, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 8130, 1807

Auto

11.1 19%

Teleop

19.0 32%

Endgame

29.2 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.2pts

Blue projected score64.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: 46–105
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 153 vs event baseline 106.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.1Season APEX293.8

22.5Auto11.1

47.1Teleop19

21.5Endgame29.2

32Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	13	52
endgame	15	35
foul	0	0
total	45	108

Result

Final score

45 – 108

Prediction missed · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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