Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.57 – 76.03

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.8 ±12.4

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 21.89Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 103.22Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 8.46Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.7 ±12.1

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 33.41Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 12.19Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 30.43Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8721, 9094, 4652

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8721, 9094, 4652

Auto

19.1 14%

Teleop

79.4 59%

Endgame

36.7 27%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1257, 11104, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1257, 11104, 10400

Auto

11.5 17%

Teleop

49.1 71%

Endgame

8.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.6pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.5
Score range: 57–153
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

327.8Season APEX133.7

19.1Auto11.5

79.4Teleop49.1

36.7Endgame8.8

6Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	27
teleop	105	65
endgame	71	16
foul	0	0
total	197	108

Result

Final score

197 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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