Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

129 – 191.51

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.9 ±11.2

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 100.61Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 19.95Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 8.44Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.5 ±9.9

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 34.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 73.53Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 83.28Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9094, 10157, 4637

/ 100 compat

Projected

129 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9094, 10157, 4637

Auto

20.8 16%

Teleop

71.5 55%

Endgame

36.9 29%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2722, 1640, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 1640, 1391

Auto

35.2 18%

Teleop

128.4 67%

Endgame

27.9 15%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129pts

Blue projected score191.5pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.5
Score range: 110–211
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 104.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.9Season APEX584.5

20.8Auto35.2

71.5Teleop128.4

36.9Endgame27.9

67Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	37
teleop	55	20
endgame	65	18
foul	0	0
total	121	75

Result

Final score

121 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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