Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.53 – 44.15

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±10.5

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 1.16Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 109.37Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 6Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116.2 ±13.3

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 4.27Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 21.22Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8130Absegami Robotics

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 18.66Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9416, 1218, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9416, 1218, 11104

Auto

20.0 17%

Teleop

70.8 60%

Endgame

26.7 23%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2720, 8714, 8130

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 8714, 8130

Auto

-1.8 0%

Teleop

25.1 59%

Endgame

19.3 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.5pts

Blue projected score44.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.4
Score range: 25–136
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 106.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.4Season APEX116.2

20Auto-1.8

70.8Teleop25.1

26.7Endgame19.3

33Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	18
teleop	86	14
endgame	5	10
foul	15	5
total	142	47

Result

Final score

142 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 14.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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