Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.24 – 67.2

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

253 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±10.7

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 22.47Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 137.55Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

834SparTechs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 0.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.7 ±11.7

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 20.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 22.18Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 24.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2722, 190, 834

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2722, 190, 834

Auto

25.8 16%

Teleop

88.3 54%

Endgame

48.0 30%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10157, 365, 8721

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10157, 365, 8721

Auto

14.4 23%

Teleop

21.0 33%

Endgame

27.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.2pts

Blue projected score67.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 93
Score range: 48–179
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.8Season APEX235.7

25.8Auto14.4

88.3Teleop21

48Endgame27.3

25Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	25
teleop	135	6
endgame	60	17
foul	0	0
total	253	48

Result

Final score

253 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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