Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

133.8 – 105.94

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.8 ±10.5

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 84.23Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 26.65Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 22.92Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.2 ±9.8

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 54.8Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 12.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 38.5Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 1257, 5401

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 103, 1257, 5401

Auto

22.2 17%

Teleop

96.5 72%

Endgame

15.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7587, 2554, 1807

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7587, 2554, 1807

Auto

16.2 16%

Teleop

45.8 45%

Endgame

39.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.9
Score range: 87–153
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 104.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.8Season APEX361.2

22.2Auto16.2

96.5Teleop45.8

15.3Endgame39.3

155Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	13
teleop	92	69
endgame	22	32
foul	30	0
total	170	114

Result

Final score

170 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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