Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 2.07

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±11

5401Fightin' Robotic Owls

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 11.66Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX -12.94Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX -2.84Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.4 ±13.3

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -16.86Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 0.66Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1257Parallel Universe

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 18.27Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5401, 2720, 9416

/ 100 compat

Projected

-4.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5401, 2720, 9416

Auto

2.6 0%

Teleop

15.7 0%

Endgame

-22.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8704, 4637, 1257

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8704, 4637, 1257

Auto

-2.5 0%

Teleop

9.4 100%

Endgame

-3.5 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-4.1pts

Blue projected score2.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: -20–22
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 120 vs event baseline 108.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.1Season APEX90.4

2.6Auto-2.5

15.7Teleop9.4

-22.2Endgame-3.5

63Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	24
teleop	35	28
endgame	16	3
foul	0	0
total	65	55

Result

Final score

65 – 55

Prediction missed · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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