Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.72 – 217.05

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.4 ±10.5

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 18.43Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 70.28Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 53.01Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.2 ±10

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 47.5Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 31.93Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 137.62Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 1640, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4342, 1640, 7587

Auto

39.2 27%

Teleop

74.3 52%

Endgame

29.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1923, 10400, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1923, 10400, 190

Auto

27.3 13%

Teleop

116.9 55%

Endgame

68.3 32%

Strengths

· 190 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.7pts

Blue projected score217.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.3
Score range: 123–236
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 105.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.4Season APEX393.2

39.2Auto27.3

74.3Teleop116.9

29.4Endgame68.3

11Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	40
teleop	89	128
endgame	66	27
foul	0	0
total	177	195

Result

Final score

177 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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