Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.21 – 143.48

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.9 ±9.8

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 18.53Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 77.89Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 2.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±11.2

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 118.98Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -6.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 30.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1712, 103, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1712, 103, 2554

Auto

12.7 13%

Teleop

67.2 68%

Endgame

18.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1218, 4652, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1218, 4652, 365

Auto

-4.2 0%

Teleop

90.8 62%

Endgame

59.1 41%

Strengths

· 1218 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.3
Score range: 80–162
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.9Season APEX384.3

12.7Auto-4.2

67.2Teleop90.8

18.5Endgame59.1

104Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	22
teleop	88	59
endgame	19	46
foul	0	0
total	145	127

Result

Final score

145 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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