Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

52.68 – 133.18

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±11.1

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -3.34Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -11.98Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 68Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.1 ±11.7

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 17.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2722Charge Robotics

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 20.62Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 94.77Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11104, 7414, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 7414, 1391

Auto

26.2 53%

Teleop

35.9 72%

Endgame

-12.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8714, 2722, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8714, 2722, 9094

Auto

1.4 1%

Teleop

84.0 63%

Endgame

47.2 36%

Strengths

· 9094 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.7pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.5
Score range: 35–151
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323.5Season APEX358.1

26.2Auto1.4

35.9Teleop84

-12.5Endgame47.2

63Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	12
teleop	103	110
endgame	2	57
foul	0	5
total	146	184

Result

Final score

146 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 72.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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