Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.3 – 98.54

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.5 ±12.8

4637BambieBotz

Season APEX 9.6Event APEX 26.2Rank 32Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 21.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 43.57Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274.3 ±11.7

8721Code Name M.I.T.

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 45.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1807Redbird Robotics

Season APEX 197.4Event APEX 39.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 13.14Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4637, 1647, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4637, 1647, 1923

Auto

-2.7 0%

Teleop

64.0 77%

Endgame

22.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8721, 1807, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8721, 1807, 2720

Auto

17.3 18%

Teleop

47.8 48%

Endgame

33.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.3pts

Blue projected score98.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: 72–118
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 77 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.5Season APEX274.3

-2.7Auto17.3

64Teleop47.8

22.2Endgame33.7

158Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	18
teleop	6	15
endgame	11	6
foul	0	5
total	33	44

Result

Final score

33 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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