Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

23.04 – 94.44

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±12.2

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -19.69Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 2.07Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7587Metuchen Momentum

Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 40.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.8 ±9.8

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 66.72Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9416International Θperatives of World Affairs

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 12.15Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2554The Warhawks

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 15.57Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7414, 8714, 7587

/ 100 compat

Projected

23 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7414, 8714, 7587

Auto

17.2 70%

Teleop

15.5 64%

Endgame

-8.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 9416, 2554

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1391, 9416, 2554

Auto

8.1 9%

Teleop

72.6 80%

Endgame

10.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score23pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.4
Score range: 4–113
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 106.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

186Season APEX363.8

17.2Auto8.1

15.5Teleop72.6

-8.3Endgame10.1

5Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	25
teleop	34	59
endgame	25	0
foul	0	0
total	70	84

Result

Final score

70 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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