Qualification · Qualification 18
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
38.82 – 124.4
26%74%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
50 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 6.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.8 ±11.6
Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 17.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 14.21Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 86Event APEX 7.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.3 ±11.1
Season APEX 45.3Event APEX 26.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 14.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 82.97Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5789, 1257, 834
37
/ 100 compatProjected
38.8 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 5789, 1257, 834
Auto
7.7 17%
Teleop
30.3 68%
Endgame
6.3 14%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4342, 2722, 103
72
/ 100 compatProjected
124.4 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 4342, 2722, 103
Auto
18.5 15%
Teleop
62.2 49%
Endgame
45.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 1.9
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score38.8pts
Blue projected score124.4pts
Red win probability26%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 37%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -85.6
- Score range
- 21–142
- Upset likelihood
- 26%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
206.8Season APEX383.3
7.7Auto18.5
30.3Teleop62.2
6.3Endgame45.7
123Consistency105
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 25 |
| teleop | 28 | 77 |
| endgame | 12 | 20 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 50 | 127 |
Result
Final score
50 – 127
Prediction correct · off by 6.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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