Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.96 – 35.1

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±11

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 16.42Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1712Dawgma

Season APEX 100Event APEX 12.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10157Roman Robotics

Season APEX 85.3Event APEX 32.91Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.6 ±12.2

8704Void Warranty

Season APEX 24.6Event APEX -4.2Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 24.91Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 14.39Rank 30Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10400, 1712, 10157

/ 100 compat

Projected

62 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10400, 1712, 10157

Auto

13.7 24%

Teleop

34.3 60%

Endgame

9.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8704, 365, 11104

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8704, 365, 11104

Auto

1.8 6%

Teleop

26.7 88%

Endgame

1.7 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62pts

Blue projected score35.1pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample158alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 16–81
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 103.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX180.6

13.7Auto1.8

34.3Teleop26.7

9.4Endgame1.7

148Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	6
teleop	36	4
endgame	27	10
foul	0	0
total	85	20

Result

Final score

85 – 20

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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