Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
103.93 – 108.01
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
140 – 114
Prediction missed · off by 21 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±11.7
Season APEX 86Event APEX 4.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 81.03Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 18.62Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±11
Season APEX 108.6Event APEX 35.9Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 44.48Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 27.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 834, 103, 8130
68
/ 100 compatProjected
103.9 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 834, 103, 8130
Auto
16.0 16%
Teleop
68.5 68%
Endgame
16.7 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7587, 1923, 2720
74
/ 100 compatProjected
108 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 7587, 1923, 2720
Auto
15.1 15%
Teleop
61.2 60%
Endgame
26.4 26%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.41
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score103.9pts
Blue projected score108pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample158alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -4.1
- Score range
- 87–125
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.8Season APEX257.3
16Auto15.1
68.5Teleop61.2
16.7Endgame26.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 0 | 7 |
| teleop | 96 | 60 |
| endgame | 44 | 47 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 140 | 114 |
Result
Final score
140 – 114
Prediction missed · off by 21 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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